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Table 10 (7a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in second and third degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

  Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
  5 10 11 12 13 14 15
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Second Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9 - 1.6%)
r = 0.25 12.1% 13.0% 12.9% 12.8% 12.8 - 13.3% 12.7-13.3% 12.6 - 13.3%
r = 0.33 9.2% 7.6% 6.8 - 9.1% 6.1 - 8.4% 7.8% 7.1 - 9.1% 6.5 - 8.5%
r = 0.5 5.6% 3.2 - 4.4% 3.5 - 4.7% 2.8 - 5.0% 3.1 - 4.1% 3.4 - 4.4% 2.7 - 3.7%
r = 1 3.7 - 4.5% 2.1 - 2.9% 1.8 - 2.5% 1.8 - 2.4% 1.5 - 2.1% 1.5 - 2.0% 1.3 - 1.8%
r = 2 2.5 - 3.9% 1.4 - 2.0% 1.4 - 1.8% 1.2 - 1.7% 1.0 - 1.4% 0.9 - 1.2% 0.8 - 1.2%
r = 4 2.4 - 3.5% 1.1 - 1.7% 1.0 - 1.5% 0.9 - 1.3% 0.8 - 1.1% 0.7 - 1.0% 0.6 - 0.9%
r = 8 2.1 - 3.2% 1.0 - 1.4% 0.9 - 1.3% 0.7 - 1.1% 0.6 - 0.9% 0.5 - 0.8% 0.5 - 0.7%
r = 16 1.9 - 3.0% 0.9 - 1.3% 0.8 - 1.1% 0.6 - 0.9% 0.5 - 0.8% 0.5 - 0.7% 0.4 - 0.6%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Third Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9%)
r = 0.25 11.8% 12.9% 12.8% 12.7% 12.5 - 13.3% 12.4 - 13.2% 12.3 - 13.2%
r = 0.33 8.3% 6.3% 5.5 - 7.9% 4.8 - 7.1% 6.4% 5.7 - 7.8% 5.0 - 7.1%
r = 0.5 4.4% 2.0 - 3.0% 2.3 - 3.3% 1.7 - 3.4% 1.9 - 2.7% 2.1 - 2.9% 1.6 - 2.2%
r = 1 2.7 - 3.3% 1.1 - 1.7% 0.9 - 1.4% 0.9 - 1.3% 0.7 - 1.1% 0.7 - 1.0% 0.5 - 0.8%
r = 2 1.7 - 2.8% 0.7 - 1.1% 0.6 - 0.9% 0.5 - 0.8% 0.4 - 0.7% 0.4 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.5%
r = 4 1.6 - 2.5% 0.5 - 0.9% 0.5 - 0.7% 0.4 - 0.6% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.4% 0.2 - 0.3%
r = 8 1.4 - 2.4% 0.5 - 0.8% 0.4 - 0.6% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.4% 0.2 - 0.3% 0.2 - 0.3%
r = 16 1.3 - 2.2% 0.4 - 0.7% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.2 - 0.4% 0.2 - 0.3% 0.1 - 0.2%
  1. (Targets are in bold; optimal solution is underlined)