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Table 7 (5b) Predicted concordance rates of MS in siblings of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1) and either 100% Dominant genes or 100% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

  Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
  16 17 18 30 40 50 60
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Dominant)
r = 0.25 13.4% 13.4% 13.3 - 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
r = 0.33 9.5 - 11.0% 10.7% 10.4 - 11.6% 9.4 - 11.6% 10.4 - 12.0% 10.2 - 12.3% 10.9 - 13.2%
r = 0.5 7.8 - 8.8% 7.2 - 8.2% 7.7 - 8.6% 6.2 - 8.6% 6.7 - 8.1% 6.4 - 8.3% 6.8 - 11.4%
r = 1 6.0 - 6.9% 6.2 - 7.1% 6.0 - 6.8% 5.5 - 6.8% 5.1 - 6.5% 5.1 - 6.1% 4.8 - 9.6%
r = 2 6.0 - 6.8% 6.0 - 6.6% 5.9 - 6.7% 5.2 - 6.4% 4.9 - 6.0% 4.8 - 5.7% 4.6 - 9.2%
r = 4 5.9 - 6.7% 5.8 - 6.6% 5.8 - 6.5% 5.1 - 6.3% 5.0 - 5.9% 4.8 - 5.6% 4.6 - 9.0%
r = 8 5.9 - 6.7% 5.9 - 6.6% 5.8 - 6.5% 5.1 - 6.2% 4.9 - 5.9% 4.8 - 5.6% 4.6 - 9.0%
r = 16 5.9 - 6.6% 5.8 - 6.6% 5.8 - 6.5% 5.2 - 6.2% 5.0 - 5.9% 4.8 - 5.6% 4.6 - 6.8%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Recessive)
r = 0.25 13.4% 13.4% 13.3 - 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
r = 0.33 9.2 - 10.8% 10.5% 10.1 - 11.4% 9.1 - 11.4% 10.5 - 11.8% 9.8 - 12.1% 10.5 - 13.1%
r = 0.5 7.0 - 8.0% 6.3 - 7.4% 6.8 - 7.8% 5.1 - 7.5% 5.2 - 6.7% 4.9 - 6.8% 5.1 - 10.3%
r = 1 4.2 - 5.0% 4.3 - 5.2% 4.1 - 4.9% 3.2 - 4.3% 2.6 - 3.7% 2.3 - 3.1% 1.9 - 6.2%
r = 2 3.3 - 4.1% 3.3 - 3.9% 3.2 - 3.9% 2.1 - 2.9% 1.6 - 2.2% 1.3 - 1.7% 1.0 - 4.0%
r = 4 2.7 - 3.3% 2.6 - 3.2% 2.5 - 3.0% 1.4 - 2.1% 1.0 - 1.5% 0.7 - 1.1% 0.5 - 2.7%
r = 8 2.3 - 2.8% 2.2 - 2.7% 2.1 - 2.5% 1.1 - 1.6% 0.7 - 1.0% 0.5 - 0.7% 0.3 - 1.9%
r = 16 2.0 - 2.5% 1.9 - 2.3% 1.8 - 2.2% 0.8 - 1.3% 0.5 - 0.8% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.2 - 0.6%
  1. (Target = 2.9 - 3.8% is in bold).