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Table 7 (5b) Predicted concordance rates of MS in siblings of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1) and either 100% Dominant genes or 100% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

 

Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)

 

16

17

18

30

40

50

60

Frequency of Susceptibility (r)

Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Dominant)

r = 0.25

13.4%

13.4%

13.3 - 13.4%

13.4%

13.4%

13.4%

13.4%

r = 0.33

9.5 - 11.0%

10.7%

10.4 - 11.6%

9.4 - 11.6%

10.4 - 12.0%

10.2 - 12.3%

10.9 - 13.2%

r = 0.5

7.8 - 8.8%

7.2 - 8.2%

7.7 - 8.6%

6.2 - 8.6%

6.7 - 8.1%

6.4 - 8.3%

6.8 - 11.4%

r = 1

6.0 - 6.9%

6.2 - 7.1%

6.0 - 6.8%

5.5 - 6.8%

5.1 - 6.5%

5.1 - 6.1%

4.8 - 9.6%

r = 2

6.0 - 6.8%

6.0 - 6.6%

5.9 - 6.7%

5.2 - 6.4%

4.9 - 6.0%

4.8 - 5.7%

4.6 - 9.2%

r = 4

5.9 - 6.7%

5.8 - 6.6%

5.8 - 6.5%

5.1 - 6.3%

5.0 - 5.9%

4.8 - 5.6%

4.6 - 9.0%

r = 8

5.9 - 6.7%

5.9 - 6.6%

5.8 - 6.5%

5.1 - 6.2%

4.9 - 5.9%

4.8 - 5.6%

4.6 - 9.0%

r = 16

5.9 - 6.6%

5.8 - 6.6%

5.8 - 6.5%

5.2 - 6.2%

5.0 - 5.9%

4.8 - 5.6%

4.6 - 6.8%

Frequency of Susceptibility (r)

Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Recessive)

r = 0.25

13.4%

13.4%

13.3 - 13.4%

13.4%

13.4%

13.4%

13.4%

r = 0.33

9.2 - 10.8%

10.5%

10.1 - 11.4%

9.1 - 11.4%

10.5 - 11.8%

9.8 - 12.1%

10.5 - 13.1%

r = 0.5

7.0 - 8.0%

6.3 - 7.4%

6.8 - 7.8%

5.1 - 7.5%

5.2 - 6.7%

4.9 - 6.8%

5.1 - 10.3%

r = 1

4.2 - 5.0%

4.3 - 5.2%

4.1 - 4.9%

3.2 - 4.3%

2.6 - 3.7%

2.3 - 3.1%

1.9 - 6.2%

r = 2

3.3 - 4.1%

3.3 - 3.9%

3.2 - 3.9%

2.1 - 2.9%

1.6 - 2.2%

1.3 - 1.7%

1.0 - 4.0%

r = 4

2.7 - 3.3%

2.6 - 3.2%

2.5 - 3.0%

1.4 - 2.1%

1.0 - 1.5%

0.7 - 1.1%

0.5 - 2.7%

r = 8

2.3 - 2.8%

2.2 - 2.7%

2.1 - 2.5%

1.1 - 1.6%

0.7 - 1.0%

0.5 - 0.7%

0.3 - 1.9%

r = 16

2.0 - 2.5%

1.9 - 2.3%

1.8 - 2.2%

0.8 - 1.3%

0.5 - 0.8%

0.3 - 0.5%

0.2 - 0.6%

  1. (Target = 2.9 - 3.8% is in bold).