Table 8 (6a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in first degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.
From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility
Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (Target = 2.9 - 3.8%) | ||||||
r = 0.25 | 12.6% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.1 - 13.4% | 13.1 - 13.4% | 13.0 - 13.4% |
r = 0.33 | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.6 - 11.3% | 9.1 - 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.1 - 11.5% | 9.7 - 11.2% |
r = 0.5 | 8.1% | 6.5 - 7.9% | 7.1 - 8.3% | 6.3 - 8.7% | 6.8 - 8.0% | 7.3 - 8.4% | 6.6 - 7.8% |
r = 1 | 6.5 - 7.3% | 5.4 - 6.6% | 5.1 - 6.2% | 5.2 - 6.3% | 4.9 - 5.9% | 5.0 - 6.0% | 4.8 - 5.7% |
r = 2 | 5.2 - 6.7% | 4.4 - 5.4% | 4.5 - 5.2% | 4.3 - 5.2% | 4.0 - 4.9% | 4.0 - 4.6% | 3.9 - 4.7% |
r = 4 | 5.0 - 6.2% | 3.9 - 4.8% | 3.8 - 4.7% | 3.7 - 4.5% | 3.5 - 4.2% | 3.4 - 4.1% | 3.3 - 4.0% |
r = 8 | 4.6 - 5.9% | 3.5 - 4.4% | 3.5 - 4.3% | 3.3 - 4.0% | 3.1 - 3.8% | 2.9 - 3.6% | 2.9 - 3.5% |
r = 16 | 4.3 - 5.6% | 3.3 - 4.1% | 3.2 - 4.0% | 3.0 - 3.7% | 2.8 - 3.5% | 2.6 - 3.3% | 2.6 - 3.2% |
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Parents/Children (Target = 1.8 - 2.1%) | ||||||
r = 0.25 | 12.6% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.1 - 13.4% | 13.1 - 13.4% | 13.0 - 13.4% |
r = 0.33 | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.4 - 11.2% | 8.9 - 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.9 - 11.4% | 9.5 - 11.0% |
r = 0.5 | 7.7% | 5.9 - 7.3% | 6.5 - 7.8% | 5.7 - 8.2% | 6.2 - 7.4% | 6.6 - 7.8% | 6.0 - 7.1% |
r = 1 | 5.6 - 6.4% | 4.3 - 5.4% | 3.9 - 5.0% | 4.0 - 5.0% | 3.6 - 4.5% | 3.7 - 4.6% | 3.4 - 4.3% |
r = 2 | 3.7 - 5.3% | 2.8 - 3.7% | 2.9 - 3.6% | 2.6 - 3.4% | 2.4 - 3.1% | 2.3 - 2.8% | 2.2 - 2.8% |
r = 4 | 3.3 - 4.5% | 2.1 - 2.8% | 2.0 - 2.7% | 1.8 - 2.4% | 1.6 - 2.1% | 1.5 - 2.0% | 1.4 - 1.9% |
r = 8 | 2.7 - 3.9% | 1.6 - 2.2% | 1.5 - 2.1% | 1.3 - 1.8% | 1.1 - 1.6% | 1.0 - 1.4% | 1.0 - 1.3% |
r = 16 | 2.3 - 3.5% | 1.2 - 1.7% | 1.2 - 1.7% | 1.0 - 1.4% | 0.8 - 1.2% | 0.7 - 1.0% | 0.7 - 0.9% |