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Table 8 (6a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in first degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

  Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
  5 10 11 12 13 14 15
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (Target = 2.9 - 3.8%)
r = 0.25 12.6% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.0 - 13.4%
r = 0.33 10.8% 10.1% 9.6 - 11.3% 9.1 - 10.9% 10.5% 10.1 - 11.5% 9.7 - 11.2%
r = 0.5 8.1% 6.5 - 7.9% 7.1 - 8.3% 6.3 - 8.7% 6.8 - 8.0% 7.3 - 8.4% 6.6 - 7.8%
r = 1 6.5 - 7.3% 5.4 - 6.6% 5.1 - 6.2% 5.2 - 6.3% 4.9 - 5.9% 5.0 - 6.0% 4.8 - 5.7%
r = 2 5.2 - 6.7% 4.4 - 5.4% 4.5 - 5.2% 4.3 - 5.2% 4.0 - 4.9% 4.0 - 4.6% 3.9 - 4.7%
r = 4 5.0 - 6.2% 3.9 - 4.8% 3.8 - 4.7% 3.7 - 4.5% 3.5 - 4.2% 3.4 - 4.1% 3.3 - 4.0%
r = 8 4.6 - 5.9% 3.5 - 4.4% 3.5 - 4.3% 3.3 - 4.0% 3.1 - 3.8% 2.9 - 3.6% 2.9 - 3.5%
r = 16 4.3 - 5.6% 3.3 - 4.1% 3.2 - 4.0% 3.0 - 3.7% 2.8 - 3.5% 2.6 - 3.3% 2.6 - 3.2%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Parents/Children (Target = 1.8 - 2.1%)
r = 0.25 12.6% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.0 - 13.4%
r = 0.33 10.7% 9.9% 9.4 - 11.2% 8.9 - 10.8% 10.4% 9.9 - 11.4% 9.5 - 11.0%
r = 0.5 7.7% 5.9 - 7.3% 6.5 - 7.8% 5.7 - 8.2% 6.2 - 7.4% 6.6 - 7.8% 6.0 - 7.1%
r = 1 5.6 - 6.4% 4.3 - 5.4% 3.9 - 5.0% 4.0 - 5.0% 3.6 - 4.5% 3.7 - 4.6% 3.4 - 4.3%
r = 2 3.7 - 5.3% 2.8 - 3.7% 2.9 - 3.6% 2.6 - 3.4% 2.4 - 3.1% 2.3 - 2.8% 2.2 - 2.8%
r = 4 3.3 - 4.5% 2.1 - 2.8% 2.0 - 2.7% 1.8 - 2.4% 1.6 - 2.1% 1.5 - 2.0% 1.4 - 1.9%
r = 8 2.7 - 3.9% 1.6 - 2.2% 1.5 - 2.1% 1.3 - 1.8% 1.1 - 1.6% 1.0 - 1.4% 1.0 - 1.3%
r = 16 2.3 - 3.5% 1.2 - 1.7% 1.2 - 1.7% 1.0 - 1.4% 0.8 - 1.2% 0.7 - 1.0% 0.7 - 0.9%
  1. (Targets are in bold; optimal solution underlined)