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Table 9 (6b) Predicted concordance rates of MS in first degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

  Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
  16 17 18 30 40 50 60
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (Target = 2.9 - 3.8%)
r = 0.25 13.4% 13.4% 13.3 - 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
r = 0.33 9.3 - 10.9% 10.5% 10.2 - 11.4% 9.9 - 11.0% 10.1 - 11.9% 9.9 - 12.1% 10.6 - 13.1%
r = 0.5 7.1 - 8.2% 6.5 - 7.5% 6.9 - 7.9% 5.3 - 7.7% 5.6 - 7.0% 5.2 - 7.1% 5.5 - 10.5%
r = 1 4.5 - 5.4% 4.6 - 5.5% 4.4 - 5.2% 3.5 - 4.7% 3.0 - 4.2% 2.8 - 3.6% 2.4 - 6.9%
r = 2 3.8 - 4.5% 3.8 - 4.3% 3.6 - 4.3% 2.5 - 3.5% 2.0 - 2.7% 1.7 - 2.3% 1.4 - 4.9%
r = 4 3.2 - 3.9% 3.1 - 3.7% 2.9 - 3.6% 1.9 - 2.7% 1.5 - 2.0% 1.2 - 1.6% 0.9 - 3.7%
r = 8 2.8 - 3.5% 2.7 - 3.3% 2.6 - 3.1% 1.5 - 2.2% 1.1 - 1.6% 0.8 - 1.2% 0.6 - 2.9%
r = 16 2.5 - 3.1% 2.4 - 2.9% 2.3 - 2.8% 1.3 - 1.9% 0.9 - 1.3% 0.6 - 0.9% 0.5 - 1.1%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Parents/Children (Target = 1.8 - 2.1%)
r = 0.25 13.4% 13.4% 13.3 - 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
r = 0.33 9.1 - 10.7% 10.4% 10.0 - 11.3% 8.8 - 11.2% 9.3 - 11.3% 9.6 - 11.9% 10.3 - 13.0%
r = 0.5 6.4 - 7.5% 5.8 - 6.8% 6.2 - 7.2% 4.4 - 6.7% 4.6 - 5.9% 4.1 - 5.9% 4.2 - 9.5%
r = 1 3.2 - 4.0% 3.3 - 4.0% 3.0 - 3.7% 2.0 - 3.0% 1.5 - 2.3% 1.2 - 1.7% 0.9 - 4.1%
r = 2 2.1 - 2.9% 2.0 - 2.4% 1.8 - 2.4% 0.9 - 1.4% 0.6 - 0.9% 0.4 - 0.6% 0.2 - 1.7%
r = 4 1.4 - 1.8% 1.2 - 1.6% 1.1 - 1.5% 0.4 - 0.7% 0.2 - 0.4% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1 - 0.7%
r = 8 0.9 - 1.3% 0.8 - 1.1% 0.7 - 1.0% 0.2 - 0.4% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.0 - 0.1% 0.0 - 0.3%
r = 16 0.7 - 0.9% 0.6 - 0.8% 0.5 - 0.7% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.0 - 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
  1. (Targets are in bold)