Table 9 (6b) Predicted concordance rates of MS in first degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.
From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility
Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 17 | 18 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | |
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (Target = 2.9 - 3.8%) | ||||||
r = 0.25 | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.3 - 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
r = 0.33 | 9.3 - 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.2 - 11.4% | 9.9 - 11.0% | 10.1 - 11.9% | 9.9 - 12.1% | 10.6 - 13.1% |
r = 0.5 | 7.1 - 8.2% | 6.5 - 7.5% | 6.9 - 7.9% | 5.3 - 7.7% | 5.6 - 7.0% | 5.2 - 7.1% | 5.5 - 10.5% |
r = 1 | 4.5 - 5.4% | 4.6 - 5.5% | 4.4 - 5.2% | 3.5 - 4.7% | 3.0 - 4.2% | 2.8 - 3.6% | 2.4 - 6.9% |
r = 2 | 3.8 - 4.5% | 3.8 - 4.3% | 3.6 - 4.3% | 2.5 - 3.5% | 2.0 - 2.7% | 1.7 - 2.3% | 1.4 - 4.9% |
r = 4 | 3.2 - 3.9% | 3.1 - 3.7% | 2.9 - 3.6% | 1.9 - 2.7% | 1.5 - 2.0% | 1.2 - 1.6% | 0.9 - 3.7% |
r = 8 | 2.8 - 3.5% | 2.7 - 3.3% | 2.6 - 3.1% | 1.5 - 2.2% | 1.1 - 1.6% | 0.8 - 1.2% | 0.6 - 2.9% |
r = 16 | 2.5 - 3.1% | 2.4 - 2.9% | 2.3 - 2.8% | 1.3 - 1.9% | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.6 - 0.9% | 0.5 - 1.1% |
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Parents/Children (Target = 1.8 - 2.1%) | ||||||
r = 0.25 | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.3 - 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
r = 0.33 | 9.1 - 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.0 - 11.3% | 8.8 - 11.2% | 9.3 - 11.3% | 9.6 - 11.9% | 10.3 - 13.0% |
r = 0.5 | 6.4 - 7.5% | 5.8 - 6.8% | 6.2 - 7.2% | 4.4 - 6.7% | 4.6 - 5.9% | 4.1 - 5.9% | 4.2 - 9.5% |
r = 1 | 3.2 - 4.0% | 3.3 - 4.0% | 3.0 - 3.7% | 2.0 - 3.0% | 1.5 - 2.3% | 1.2 - 1.7% | 0.9 - 4.1% |
r = 2 | 2.1 - 2.9% | 2.0 - 2.4% | 1.8 - 2.4% | 0.9 - 1.4% | 0.6 - 0.9% | 0.4 - 0.6% | 0.2 - 1.7% |
r = 4 | 1.4 - 1.8% | 1.2 - 1.6% | 1.1 - 1.5% | 0.4 - 0.7% | 0.2 - 0.4% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1 - 0.7% |
r = 8 | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.8 - 1.1% | 0.7 - 1.0% | 0.2 - 0.4% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.0 - 0.1% | 0.0 - 0.3% |
r = 16 | 0.7 - 0.9% | 0.6 - 0.8% | 0.5 - 0.7% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.0 - 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |