Skip to main content

Table 2 Diagnostic accuracy of single clinical, imaging and MEP variables for predicting short-term disease activity in the test cohort

From: Computational classifiers for predicting the short-term course of Multiple sclerosis

Clinical end-points

Change EDSS

Disability Progression

Relapse free

MS subtype

64 (8)

< 0.01

70 (9)

< 0.01

54 (17)

0.03

Sex

62 (11)

-0.02

70 (9)

< 0.01

67 (21)

0.30

Age

68 (15)

0.22

69 (10)

-0.01

57 (16)

0.03

Baseline EDSS

65 (16)

0.18

72 (13)

0.16

59 (11)

0.07

Baseline MF

70 (17)

0.28

71 (14)

0.16

59 (15)

0.09

Baseline MSFC

63 (10)

< 0.01

67 (12)

-0.02

58 (6)

-0.02

Baseline TWT

63 (12)

0.03

71 (11)

0.05

57 (5)

-0.03

Baseline NHPT

66 (14)

0.16

64 (13)

-0.06

58 (10)

0.03

Treatment (DMD)

63 (11)

-0.02

70 (10)

0.00

57 (8)

-0.02

CMCT ADM

64 (8)

< 0.01

70 (10)

< 0.01

55 (14)

-0.02

CMCT FHB

69 (15)

0.21

75 (15)

0.28

58 (4)

-0.01

MEP score

59 (10)

-0.05

67 (13)

-0.01

56 (8.07)

-0.04

Grouped MEP score

64 (15)

0.10

71 (12)

0.10

55 (9)

-0.05

CMCT Z score

65 (14)

0.15

70 (15)

0.17

58 (5)

-0.01

Abn TMS

59 (12)

0.01

66 (11)

< 0.01

57 (7)

-0.02

T1 vol

63 (10)

-0.03

70 (9)

< 0.01

56 (12)

0.01

Gad+ vol

64 (8)

< 0.01

70 (9)

< 0.01

58 (5)

-0.01

GM vol

63 (11)

-0.02

69 (10)

-0.01

61 (17)

0.14

WM vol*

64 (13)

0.06

69 (11)

-0.02

61 (18)

0.16

  1. Results are expressed as the Accuracy (%), standard deviation (SD) and Kappa value (in decimals) of the test cohort using the Simple Logistic algorithm. CMCT ADM and CMCT FHB refer to the average CMCT of left and right arm or leg, respectively.
  2. EDSS: Expanded disability status scale; MF: Motor score of the EDSS; MSFC: MS functional composite; TWT: Fastest time in seconds to walk 25 feet; NHPT: Nine hole peg test; DMD: Disease modifying drugs; CMCT: Central motor conduction time; CMCT ADM: Worst CMCT of both arms (ADM: Adductor digiti minimi) at baseline; CMCT FHB: Worst CMCT of both legs (FHB: Flexor hallucis brevis) at baseline; MEP score: Combined MEP score for the four limbs; Grouped MEP score: MEP score grouped in 3 classes (1 for 1-3, 2 for 4-6, and 3 for 7-9); CMCT Z score: Worst CMCT Z score of the four limbs at baseline; Abn TMS: Abnormal MEP (presence or absence of at least one abnormal MEP in each patient); T1 vol: Lesion volume in T1 at baseline; Gad+ vol: Gadolinium-enhancing lesion volume at baseline; GM vol: Grey matter volume at baseline; WM vol: White matter volume at baseline (* excluding lesions).