Increasing false positive diagnoses may lead to overestimation of stroke incidence, particularly in the young: a cross-sectional study

Table 2 Estimating Population-Level Stroke/TIAs Diagnoses

Age Group	Year	Neuro RFVs (Thousands)	Stroke/TIA Prevalence (%)	True Positive Stroke/TIAs ^a (Thousands)	False Positive Stroke/TIAs ^b (Thousands)	Total Stroke/TIA Diagnoses (Thousands)
Young	1995	3300	1.0%	33	33	66
	2015	5300	0.6%	32	53	84
	Change			−3%	61%	27%
Older Adults	1995	2000	18%	360	16	376
	2015	3000	9%	270	27	297
	Change			−25%	69%	−21%

^aTrue Positives = Number of Neuro RFVs x Stroke/TIA Prevalence
^bFalse Positives = Number of Neuro RFVs x (1 - Specificity) x (1 - Stroke/TIA Prevalence)
Specificity of Stroke/TIA diagnosis = 99%

ISSN: 1471-2377