Table 3 A) Claims, EMR Prediction accuracy at first gait or tremor, first tremor, and first gait. B) Analysis of advance prediction time at various FPR thresholds for first gait or tremor Deep Neural Network Model

Validation AUROC (95% Confidence)

Cohort Size

Percent Progressing to PD

Average days to PD (STD)

Deep Neural Network

Logistic Regression

Cohort Size

Percent Progressing to PD

Average days to PD (STD)

Logistic Regression

First Gait or Tremor

8475

2.43

469 (493)

0.874 (0.869–0.879)

0.803 (0.791–0.816)

1349

3.08

548 (517)

0.804 (0.792–0.816)

First Gait Only

3925

1.37

575 (521)

0.769 (0.759–0.780)

0.791 (0.772–0.809)

694

2.23

606 (530)

0.714 (0.679–0.750)

First Tremor Only

4550

6.69

377 (447)

0.698 (0.679–0.718)

0.697 (0.674–0.719)

681

5.24

479 (490)

0.757 (0.730–0.784)

False Positive Rate Threshold

Observed False Negative Rate

Mean Days Accelerated Diagnosis (STD)

0.90

0.00

377 (399)

0.80

0.01

375 (397)

0.70

0.03

369 (395)

0.60

0.04

368 (396)

0.50

0.07

360 (390)

0.40

0.12

348 (384)

0.30

0.18

339 (376)

0.20

0.26

334 (372)

0.10

0.33

322 (371)

0.01

0.44

303 (369)