Table 1 Results of multi-state projection, estimated number of persons by state in Germany aged 75+ in 2040, 95% uncertainty intervals in brackets

Year

Scenario

Assumptions

Total

Diab⁻Dem⁻

Diab⁺Dem⁻

Diab⁻Dem⁺

Diab⁺Dem⁺

Total dementia cases

Total diabetes cases

Change in Diab⁻Dem⁺ cases compared to Scenario 3.0

Change in Diab⁺Dem⁺ cases compared to Scenario 3.0

Change in total dementia cases compared to Scenario 3.0

2015

Base year

9.00

4.99

2.47

0.94

0.59

1.53

3.07

2040

Scenario 1

Status quo

11.55 (11.22–11.88)

5.97 (5.70–6.24)

3.36 (3.30–3.41)

1.03 (1.00–1.06)

1.20 (1.17–1.22)

2.23 (2.20–2.25)

4.55 (4.49–4-61)

–

–

–

Scenario 2

Death rates by − 2.5%

14.58 (14.24–14.90)

6.85 (6.57–7.15)

4.09 (4.03–4.16)

1.61 (1.57–1.64)

2.03 (1.97–2.09)

3.63 (3.59–3.69)

6.12 (6.04–6.22)

–

–

–

Scenario 3.0

Death rates by − 2.5%, dementia incidence of Diab⁻Dem⁻ by − 1%

14.70 (14.36–15.01)

7.20 (6.91–7.50)

4.12 (4.06–4.19)

1.38 (1.35–1.41)

2.00 (1.94–2.05)

3.38 (3.33–3.43)

6.12 (6.04–6.21)

–

–

–

Scenario 3.1

Death rates by − 2.5%, dementia incidence of Diab⁻Dem⁻ by − 1%, diabetes incidence of Diab⁻Dem⁻ by − 1%

14.73 (14.40–15.05)

7.59 (7.30–7.89)

3.80 (3.74–3.86)

1.43 (1.40–1.46)

1.92 (1.87–1.97)

3.35 (3.30–3.40)

5.72 (5.64–5.81)

+ 3.5% (+ 3.3% − + 3.8%)

−3.9% (− 4.1%--3.8%)

−0.9% (− 1.0%--0.8%)

Scenario 3.2

Death rates by − 2.5%, dementia incidence of Diab⁻Dem⁻ by − 1%, dementia incidence of Diab⁺Dem⁻ by − 1%

14.80 (14.46–15.11)

7.20 (6.91–7.50)

4.44 (4.37–4.51)

1.38 (1.35–4.41)

1.78 (1.73–1.83)

3.16 (3.12–3.21)

6.22 (6.13–6.32)

0.0% (− 0.1% − + 0.1%)

−10.9% (− 11.1%--10.6%)

−6.4% (− 6.5%--6.3%)

Scenario 3.3

Death rates by − 2.5%, dementia incidence of Diab⁻Dem⁻ by − 1%, diabetes incidence of Diab⁻Dem⁻ by − 1%, dementia incidence of Diab⁺Dem⁻ by − 1%

14.83 (14.50–15.14)

7.59 (7.30–7.89)

4.10 (4.03–4.17)

1.43 (1.40–1.46)

1.71 (1.67–1.77)

3.14 (3.10–3.19)

5.81 (5.73–5.91)

+ 3.5% (+ 3.3% − + 3.8%)

− 14.1% (− 14.3%--13.8%)

−6.9% (− 7.0%--6.8%)