Table 3 Shift table of reclassification with different models on 2019 temporal validation set
Low risk (< 5%) | Moderate risk (5–15%) | High risk (> 15%) | All | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number (% in Low risk) | observed mortality (%) | Number (% in Moderate risk) | observed mortality (%) | Number (% in High risk) | observed mortality (%) | Number (% in All) | observed mortality (%) | |
LR reference model (4 variables) | ||||||||
XGBoost | ||||||||
Number in Low risk | 19,664 (92.3) | 1.45 | 3549 (32.4) | 3.07 | 6 (0.07) | 33.33 | 23,219 (57.0) | 1.71 |
Number in Moderate risk | 1351 (6.7) | 8.66 | 5942 (54.3) | 8.16 | 1007 (11.9) | 10.43 | 8300 (20.4) | 8.52 |
Number in High risk | 297 (1.4) | 51.52 | 1455 (12.3) | 28.73 | 7440 (88.0) | 44.96 | 9192 (22.6) | 42.60 |
All | 21,312 (100) | 2.61 | 10,946 (100) | 9.25 | 8453 (100) | 40.84 | 40,711 (100) | 12.33 |
LR | ||||||||
LR with elastic net and interaction terms | ||||||||
Number in Low risk | 22,269 (96.9) | 1.75 | 1286 (13.3) | 3.65 | 0 (0) | 0 | 23,555 (57.9) | 1.85 |
Number in Moderate risk | 705 (3.1) | 6.38 | 7727 (79.8) | 9.63 | 309 (3.8) | 10.36 | 8741 (21.5) | 9.39 |
Number in High risk | 0 (0) | 0 | 669 (6.9) | 24.51 | 7746 (96.2) | 46.46 | 8415 (20.7) | 44.72 |
All | 22,974 (100) | 1.18 | 9682 (100) | 9.50 | 22,974 (100) | 44.85 | 40,711 (100) | 12.33 |
LR with elastic net and interaction terms | ||||||||
XGBoost | ||||||||
Number in Low risk | 22,707 (96.4) | 1.65 | 512 (5.9) | 4.49 | 0 (0) | 0 | 23,219 (57.0) | 1.71 |
Number in Moderate risk | 846 (3.6) | 7.33 | 7359 (84.2) | 8.59 | 95 (1.1) | 13.68 | 8300 (20.4) | 8.52 |
Number in High risk | 2 (0) | 0 | 870 (10) | 19.08 | 8320 (98.9) | 45.07 | 9192 (22.6) | 42.60 |
All | 23,555 (100) | 1.85 | 8741 (100) | 9.39 | 8415 (100) | 44.72 | 40,711 (100) | 12.33 |