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Table 11 (7b) Predicted concordance rates of MS in second and third degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

  Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
  16 17 18 30 40 50 60
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Second Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9 - 1.6%)
r = 0.25 13.3% 13.2% 13.2 - 13.4% 13.2 - 13.4% 13.3 - 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
r = 0.33 5.9 - 8.0% 7.4% 6.8 - 8.6% 4.6 - 7.6% 5.0 - 7.7% 4.3 - 7.8% 4.6 - 10.5%
r = 0.5 3.0 - 3.9% 2.4 - 3.3% 2.7 - 3.5% 1.1 - 2.3% 0.9 - 1.4% 0.5 - 1.1% 0.4 - 3.0%
r = 1 1.1 - 1.5% 1.1 - 1.5% 0.9 - 1.3% 0.3 - 0.6% 0.1 - 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 - 0.1%
r = 2 0.7 - 1.0% 0.7 - 0.9% 0.6 - 0.8% 0.1 - 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 4 0.5 - 0.8% 0.5 - 0.7% 0.4 - 0.6% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.0 - 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 8 0.4 - 0.6% 0.4 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 16 0.4 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.3 - 0.4% 0.0 - 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Third Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9%)
r = 0.25 13.2% 13.1% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.2 - 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
r = 0.33 4.5 - 6.4% 5.8% 5.2 - 7.1% 2.9 - 5.6% 3.1 - 5.4% 2.2 - 5.2% 2.4 - 8.0%
r = 0.5 1.7 - 2.4% 1.3 - 1.9% 1.4 - 2.0% 0.4 - 1.0% 0.2 - 0.4% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1 - 1.0%
r = 1 0.4 - 0.7% 0.4 - 0.6% 0.3 - 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 2 0.3 - 0.4% 0.2 - 0.3% 0.2 - 0.3% 0.0 - 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 4 0.2 - 0.3% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 8 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
r = 16 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1 - 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
  1. (Targets are in bold)