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Table 6 (5a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in siblings of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1) and either 100% Dominant genes or 100% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

  Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
  5 10 11 12 13 14 15
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Dominant)
r = 0.25 12.6% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.0 - 13.4%
r = 0.33 10.9% 10.7% 9.8 - 11.4% 10.2% 10.7% 10.3 - 11.6% 9.9 - 11.3%
r = 0.5 8.5% 7.9 - 9.1% 7.7 - 8.9% 6.9 - 9.3% 7.5 - 8.6% 8.0 - 9.0% 7.3 - 8.4%
r = 1 7.4 - 8.2% 6.4 - 7.6% 6.3 - 7.4% 6.6 - 7.6% 6.3 - 7.3% 6.5 - 7.5% 6.2 - 7.2%
r = 2 6.6 - 8.0% 6.4 - 7.5% 6.4 - 7.1% 6.2 - 7.2% 6.1 - 7.0% 6.2 - 6.8% 6.0 - 6.9%
r = 4 6.7 - 7.9% 6.3 - 7.3% 6.1 - 7.1% 6.2 - 7.0% 6.1 - 6.9% 6.0 - 6.9% 6.0 - 6.8%
r = 8 6.6 - 7.9% 6.3 - 7.2% 6.2 - 7.1% 6.1 - 7.0% 6.0 - 6.9% 6.0 - 6.8% 6.0 - 6.7%
r = 16 6.6 - 7.9% 6.3 - 7.2% 6.1 - 7.0% 6.1 - 6.9% 6.0 - 6.8% 6.0 - 6.8% 5.9 - 6.7%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r) Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Recessive)
r = 0.25 12.6% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1% 13.1- 13.4% 13.1 - 13.4% 13.2 - 13.4%
r = 0.33 10.8% 10.1% 9.6 - 11.3% 9.1 - 10.9% 10.5% 10.1 - 11.5% 9.7 - 11.2%
r = 0.5 8.1% 6.4 - 7.8% 7.0 - 8.2% 6.2 - 8.6% 6.7 - 7.9% 7.2 - 8.3% 6.5 - 7.6%
r = 1 6.4 - 7.2% 5.2 - 6.3% 4.8 - 5.9% 5.0 - 6.0% 4.6 - 5.6% 4.8 - 5.7% 4.5 - 5.4%
r = 2 5.0 - 6.5% 4.1 - 5.1% 4.1 - 4.8% 3.9 - 4.8% 3.7 - 4.5% 3.7 - 4.3% 3.5 - 4.3%
r = 4 4.8 - 6.0% 3.5 - 4.4% 3.3 - 4.2% 3.3 - 4.0% 3.1 - 3.8% 3.0 - 3.7% 2.8 - 3.5%
r = 8 4.3 - 5.7% 3.1 - 4.0% 3.0 - 3.7% 2.8 - 3.5% 2.6 - 3.3% 2.5 - 3.1% 2.4 - 3.0%
r = 16 4.0 - 5.4% 2.8 - 3.6% 2.7 -3.4% 2.5 - 3.2% 2.3 - 3.0% 2.2 - 2.8% 2.1 - 2.6%
  1. (Target = 2.9 - 3.8% is in bold; optimal solution underlined).