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Table 6 (5a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in siblings of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1) and either 100% Dominant genes or 100% Recessive genes.

From: The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

 

Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)

 

5

10

11

12

13

14

15

Frequency of Susceptibility (r)

Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Dominant)

r = 0.25

12.6%

13.2%

13.2%

13.2%

13.1 - 13.4%

13.1 - 13.4%

13.0 - 13.4%

r = 0.33

10.9%

10.7%

9.8 - 11.4%

10.2%

10.7%

10.3 - 11.6%

9.9 - 11.3%

r = 0.5

8.5%

7.9 - 9.1%

7.7 - 8.9%

6.9 - 9.3%

7.5 - 8.6%

8.0 - 9.0%

7.3 - 8.4%

r = 1

7.4 - 8.2%

6.4 - 7.6%

6.3 - 7.4%

6.6 - 7.6%

6.3 - 7.3%

6.5 - 7.5%

6.2 - 7.2%

r = 2

6.6 - 8.0%

6.4 - 7.5%

6.4 - 7.1%

6.2 - 7.2%

6.1 - 7.0%

6.2 - 6.8%

6.0 - 6.9%

r = 4

6.7 - 7.9%

6.3 - 7.3%

6.1 - 7.1%

6.2 - 7.0%

6.1 - 6.9%

6.0 - 6.9%

6.0 - 6.8%

r = 8

6.6 - 7.9%

6.3 - 7.2%

6.2 - 7.1%

6.1 - 7.0%

6.0 - 6.9%

6.0 - 6.8%

6.0 - 6.7%

r = 16

6.6 - 7.9%

6.3 - 7.2%

6.1 - 7.0%

6.1 - 6.9%

6.0 - 6.8%

6.0 - 6.8%

5.9 - 6.7%

Frequency of Susceptibility (r)

Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (100% of Genes Recessive)

r = 0.25

12.6%

13.2%

13.2%

13.1%

13.1- 13.4%

13.1 - 13.4%

13.2 - 13.4%

r = 0.33

10.8%

10.1%

9.6 - 11.3%

9.1 - 10.9%

10.5%

10.1 - 11.5%

9.7 - 11.2%

r = 0.5

8.1%

6.4 - 7.8%

7.0 - 8.2%

6.2 - 8.6%

6.7 - 7.9%

7.2 - 8.3%

6.5 - 7.6%

r = 1

6.4 - 7.2%

5.2 - 6.3%

4.8 - 5.9%

5.0 - 6.0%

4.6 - 5.6%

4.8 - 5.7%

4.5 - 5.4%

r = 2

5.0 - 6.5%

4.1 - 5.1%

4.1 - 4.8%

3.9 - 4.8%

3.7 - 4.5%

3.7 - 4.3%

3.5 - 4.3%

r = 4

4.8 - 6.0%

3.5 - 4.4%

3.3 - 4.2%

3.3 - 4.0%

3.1 - 3.8%

3.0 - 3.7%

2.8 - 3.5%

r = 8

4.3 - 5.7%

3.1 - 4.0%

3.0 - 3.7%

2.8 - 3.5%

2.6 - 3.3%

2.5 - 3.1%

2.4 - 3.0%

r = 16

4.0 - 5.4%

2.8 - 3.6%

2.7 -3.4%

2.5 - 3.2%

2.3 - 3.0%

2.2 - 2.8%

2.1 - 2.6%

  1. (Target = 2.9 - 3.8% is in bold; optimal solution underlined).