Table 2 Parameters’ estimates of trend components identified in interrupted time-series analysis of the impact assessment of the first Gulf War of 1990 (first Gulf War) on MS risk in Kuwait:1980–2019
From: Impact of the first Gulf war on multiple sclerosis risk in Kuwait: a quasi-experimental study
Description of parameter | Parameter’ estimate | 95% CI*** | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|
Initial level of ASIRs (per 105 py**) (β0) | 0.380 | − 1.024–1.784 | 0.587 |
Pre-first Gulf War linear trend in annual ASIRs (per 105 py) (β1) | 0.452 | 0.147–0.756 | 0.005 |
Immediate effect (step change) in post-first Gulf War linear trend in annual ASIRs (per 105 py) (β2) | 0.853 | − 5.156–6.862 | 0.775 |
Difference in pre-first Gulf War trend vs. post-first Gulf War linear trend in annual ASIRs (per 105 py) (β3) | 0.652 | − 0.221–1.525 | 0.138 |
Post-first Gulf War linear trend in ASIRs (per 105 py) (β1  + β3) | 1.104 | 0.404–1.804 | 0.003 |